Wagering
on moneyline bets can reek havoc on your bottom-line. This article
will go over 5 simple, yet efective rules to follow to help increase
your MLB betting potential.
Stop
Betting Huge Favorites
When
I say heavy favorites, this means any line that's posted above -170.
They might seem to the naked eye to be safe bets. However, these are
bankroll killers. It's very rare to see a favorite like this
undervalued. In fact, they are almost always overvalued. With all the
games that are played each night, there are more than enough valuable
betting opportunities to take advantage of. Let's use the Tampa Rays
for an example, they have been favored more nights than not, and even
posting a winning record of 84-78, they still where down over 9 units
for the season.
Starting
Pitching is Overrated
Pitching
is still extremely important. However, it's only part of the game. If
you look at it closely, there are only a handful of reliable starting
pitchers in the league. When these few reliable starting pitchers are
playing, what do you thing might happen? They get overvalued, and the
line is just way off base. This is especially true for bad hitting
teams. Let's use King Felix from Seattle for an example. He is one of
the few top-notch pitchers in the league. However, he posted a very
mediocre betting line at +2 units for the year.
Look
At The Schedule
Very
few people that handicap baseball games will ever look at team
schedules. Sometimes when teams have large leads in the divisions,
and they see a long road trip against poor opponents, they will
occasionally fall into the trap of thinking it will be a cake walk.
They might not practice and study opponents as hard as they would if
they where playing a tough opponent. It may be another good idea to
look for teams that are struggling on long road trips, those final
two or three games will be tough wins for them.
Don't
Bet Against Streaks
I
hear tons of sports betters say things like “they are due for a
loss”. This simply is not the case. Good teams win and bad teams
lose, it's really that simple. It's more beneficial for you to wait
for a streak to end before you try going against the grain and
betting against the house. Also, make sure never to chase losing
streaks. No matter how long they are, it doesn't matter.
Don't
Overvalue Statistics
I
will start off saying that I personally use statistics to base my
betting theory. However, these numbers can sometimes steer us in the
wrong direction. We need to evaluate what we see with our eyes, and
then compare them to what we see on paper. For an example, let's say
that a pitcher has an ERA of over 6.00. We can say that is very bad.
However, he may have had two really bad performances over thirteen
games played that skewed the numbers. Maybe he let up 9 runs one
game, then 8 runs the next, but when you look at his other starts, he
was letting up under 4 runs. It's better to look at consistency,
rather than numbers.
You can find expert picks online by searching google.com.
